Cristina Paixão de Sousa Research Group: Innovation and Labour Supervisor(s): Isabel Salavisa Summary Post-doctoral research project in Innovation Economics. Period: 2011 - 2015 Resources: N.A.

Title: Stellacci, S., Rato, V. (2017), Análise multicritério das técnicas de reforço locais: aplicação ao frontal de edifícios Pombalinos, Territórios Metropolitanos Contemporâneos 2016. Seminários Temáticos do Programa de Doutoramento Arquitectura dos Territórios Metropolitanos Contemporâneos, Lisboa, MAI 30, 2016. Date: 2017 Publisher: Seminários Temáticos do Programa de Doutoramento Arquitectura dos Territórios Metropolitanos Contemporâneos Link: https://ciencia.iscte-iul.pt/publications/analise-multicriterio-das-tecnicas-de-reforco-locais-aplicacao-ao-frontal-de-edificios-pombalinos/30562 Publication type: Publication in conference proceedings Research Project: SFRH/BD/94980/2013 Abstract: As dinâmicas da reabilitação do património Pombalino em Lisboa (1755-1880) envolvem três macro-fatores interdependentes: i) o artefacto histórico; ii) os proprietários e utilizadores; iii) os agentes especializados. A dicotomia entre a integração e a integralidade do Património cultural (PC) deriva das diferentes atribuições de valor (cultural, histórico, funcional, económico) ao edifício histórico e da coexistência de objetivos contraditórios. De facto, o domínio da reutilização e da reabilitação dos imóveis históricos (na qual se pode incluir o reforço estrutural) é marcado pela complexidade na seleção das soluções de intervenção, de projeto e técnicas. Este artigo aborda o estudo comparativo in itinere das técnicas de reforço da parede mista (frontal) através de métodos de análise de decisão multicritério (MCDA). O estudo visa propor um modelo de seleção das atuais técnicas de reforço utilizando como critérios a compatibilidade material, a autenticidade arquitectónica e estrutural e a perda de material original. Os critérios de avaliação das práticas de reforço estrutural e as combinações das variantes de reforço são brevemente discutidos. Salienta-se que a reflexão sobre o impacto das intervenções no património histórico e a necessidade de introduzir transparência no processo decisório representam prioridades no cenário contemporâneo lisboeta, bem como no contexto internacional.

Dilson Tiny Research Group: Governance, Economy and Citizenry Supervisor(s): Emanuel Leão Summary The theme of this doctoral dissertation is the sustainability of public finance in São Tomé and Príncipe. Given the complexity and highly-faceted nature of the issues to be addressed, the empirical research of this thesis proceeded in four stages, which reflects different and complementary analytical and operational perspectives. The first stage diagnoses Santomean economy and analyses the implications of macroeconomic data for the sustainability of public finance. It is found that resiliencebuilding against external shocks constitutes one of the major challenges Santomean economy faces. Over the decades, the country’s macroeconomic performance has been characterized by highly volatile economic growth, important currency depreciations prior to the 2010 currency peg, excessive external deficits and increasing financial needs related to the implementation of programs to reducing poverty and bolstering economic development. These economic vulnerabilities, which reflect, among others, country’s specificities and the characteristics of a Small Developing Island State, have also had a huge impact on the deterioration of public finance and the higher growth of public debt. The second stage applies econometric analysis. The stationarity tests for public debt and public debt-to-GDP ratio variables, as well as a cointegration tests between public expenditure and public revenue are developed. The results of these tests suggest that the public debt in São Tomé and Príncipe is not on a sustainable path. The third stage of this study forecasts the future evolution of the public debt-to-GDP ratio and analyses scenarios and stress tests. The analysis of the debt-to-GDP’s scenarios, given the variations of its determining fators, suggests that the public debt-to- GDP ratio is mainly sensitive to economic growth and the primary deficit. Furthermore, the stress tests suggest that, should there be an exchange rate crisis, the magnitude of the currency depreciation would be higher and the ratio of debt to GDP would reach unsustainable levels. The fourth stage of this analysis of public finance sustainability in São Tomé and Príncipe, while relying on the analysis carried out during the previous stages, incorporates the uncertainties stemming from the evolution of the determinants of the public debt. In this regard, the stochastic simulation of the debt-to-GDP ratio is applied and derived using the historical average of the variance-covariance matrix of the determinants of the public debt-to-GDP ratio. The model has identified 1000 possible paths for the public debt-to-GDP ratio in São Tomé and Príncipe and helped quantify the probabilities of the evolution of the debt-to-GDP ratio different paths with reference to a baseline. This research is the first one that applies stochastic simulation to evaluate the sustainability of public debt in São Tomé and Príncipe and is also among the first few conducted in low-income countries. Resources: http://hdl.handle.net/10071/10093

Title: Suleman, A.(2017), Validation of Archetypal Analysis, The 2017 International Conference on Fuzzy Systems - FUZZ-IEEE 2017, Nápoles, JUL 9-12, 2017. Date: 2017 Publisher: The 2017 International Conference on Fuzzy Systems - FUZZ-IEEE 2017 Link: https://ciencia.iscte-iul.pt/publications/validation-of-archetypal-analysis/37991 Publication type: Publication in conference proceedings Research Project: N.A. Abstract: We use an information-theoretic criterion to assess the goodness-of-fit of the output of archetypal analysis (AA), also intended as a fuzzy clustering tool. It is an adaptation of an existing AIC-like measure to the specifics of AA. We test its effectiveness using artificial data and some data sets arising from real life problems. In most cases, the results achieved are similar to those provided by an external similarity index. The average reconstruction accuracy is about 93%.

Title: Suleman, A., Suleman, F., Lagoa, S. (2017), Understanding Firms Compensation Policy Using Fuzzy Sets, The 2017 International Conference on Fuzzy Systems - FUZZ-IEEE 2017, Nápoles, JUL 9-12, 2017. Date: 2017 Publisher: The 2017 International Conference on Fuzzy Systems - FUZZ-IEEE 2017 Link: https://ciencia.iscte-iul.pt/publications/understanding-firms-compensation-policy-using-fuzzy-sets/37990 Publication type: Publication in conference proceedings Research Project: N.A. Abstract: It has been noted in the literature that firms rarely follow a single theoretical model when designing their compensation policy. This study illustrates how a fuzzy cluster analysis can be helpful in understanding the way employees are rewarded according to firms’ specificity and market conditions. For this purpose, we convert linked employer-employee data (LEED) into firm level data prior to fuzzy clustering. Then, we explore the particular distribution of firms on the emerged fuzzy partition to sort them by compensation policy and, eventually, to examine the potential factors behind a specific option.

Maria José Sardinha Research Group: Cities and Territories Supervisor(s): Paulo Tormenta Pinto Summary N.A. Period: 2009-... Resources: N.A.

Gustavo Toshiaki Sugahara Research Group: Cities and Territories Supervisor(s): Rune Halvorsen Summary N.A. Period: 2015-2018 Resources: N.A.

Carolina Henriques Research Group: Cities and Territories Supervisor(s): Teresa Costa Pinto Summary N.A. Period: 2016-2019 Resources: N.A.

Maria João Oliveira Research Group: Cities and Territories Supervisor(s): Vasco Rato, Carla Leitão Summary N.A. Period: 2014 - 2019 Resources: N.A.

Diptes Bhimjee Research Group: Governance, Economy and Citizenry Supervisor(s): Sofia Ramos, Emanuel Leão Summary The present Doctoral Thesis is comprised of three empirical essays addressing the Global Financial Crisis of 2007 – 2008. The said essays analyse distinct, but interconnected issues pertaining to this fundamental research topic. In the first paper, a careful examination is conducted in order to ascertain whether the ‘Subprime’ Crisis in the U.S.A. might have been duly forecasted using publicly available data. This hypothesis is confirmed by using two distinctive methodologies applied to a set of financial indicators, which independently confirm the predictability of the said financial shock. The second paper addresses the degree of heterogeneity of banking responses in forty two countries in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis. By employing a novel methodology – the Heterogeneous Regime-Switching Model (HRSM) –, representative country banking institutions worldwide are deemed to have had quite distinctive and heterogeneous responses to the onset of the global systemic event under scrutiny, and these responses may be grouped according to certain clusters. The third paper addresses the impact of the Global Financial Crisis upon the Euro Area and corresponding sovereign debt schedules. An updated academic survey is first conducted regarding the topic of the impact of excessive Member States’ sovereign debt in the wake of the systemic breakdown. The survey is followed by an empirical study using quadratic econometric specifications demonstrating that the over-accumulation of sovereign debt in the Euro Area is strongly associated with the diminishment of output growth in the latter Area, and that sound sovereign debt thresholds in key Euro Area Member States have been unwisely breached.A presente Tese Doutoral abarca três ensaios académicos empíricos que analisam a Crise Financeira Global de 2007 – 2008. Estes ensaios analisam questões científicas distintas, mas interligadas entre si, relativamente a este fundamental tópico de investigação. O primeiro ensaio investiga cuidadosamente a hipótese segundo a qual a Crise ‘Subprime’ nos E.U.A. poderia ter sido adequadamente prevista por recurso a dados publicamente disponíveis. Esta hipótese é verificada por recurso a duas metodologias alternativas, devidamente aplicadas a um conjunto de indicadores estritamente financeiros, sendo confirmada a previsibilidade do dito choque financeiro. O segundo ensaio investiga, no seguimento da Crise Financeira Global, o grau de heterogeneidade dos comportamentos de instituições financeiras em quarenta e dois países. Utilizando uma inovadora metodologia – intitulada Heterogeneous Regime-Switching Model (HRSM) –, constata-se que os distintos sistemas financeiros nacionais reagiram de forma diferenciada e heterogénea ao choque financeiro global sob estudo, sendo estas respostas passíveis de serem agrupadas em certas categorias. O terceiro ensaio investiga o impacto económico da Crise Financeira Global sobre a Zona Euro e, em particular, sobre a dinâmica da respectiva dívida soberana. Primeiramente, é elaborado um survey académico actualizado relativamente ao tópico do excessivo endividamento público e respectivo impacto sobre o produto económico, prestando-se particular atenção ao contexto do choque sistémico sob análise. Este survey académico é seguido de uma aplicação empírica envolvendo especificações econométricas quadráticas que atestam que a excessiva acumulação de dívida soberana na Zona Euro está associada a um processo de decrescimento económico da dita Zona, e que níveis óptimos associados a rácios de dívida pública em determinados Estados Membros foram imprudentemente ultrapassados. Period: ... - 2013 Resources: http://hdl.handle.net/10071/6867