New Science article proposes demand-side goals for energy and climate resilience

The study was led by Nuno Bento, researcher at DINÂMIA’CET-Iscte.

A new study published in Science argues that governments must adopt three integrated targets for energy demand by 2035, stating that climate policy will fall short if it focuses solely on how energy is produced and continues to neglect how it is utilized.

The article, "New demand goals for energy and climate resilience", authored by researchers Nuno Bento (DINÂMIA'CET-Iscte), Arnulf Grubler, and Nebojsa Nakicenovic (both from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis - IIASA), proposes a tripling agenda on three fronts: tripling progress in energy efficiency, electrification, and measures aimed at curbing extreme energy consumption.

The authors argue that international climate efforts and energy policy have focused primarily on expanding the supply of clean energy, paying much less attention to final energy demand — that is, the energy actually utilized in transport, housing, heating, cooling, and industry.

The growth in energy demand is also rendering economies more vulnerable to energy crises and external shocks, reinforcing the need to act more directly on the demand side.

The study highlights a stark global imbalance: half of the world's population lives at or below the threshold of decent living standards, with an estimated consumption between 15 and 18 GJ per person per year, and over 700 million people remain without access to basic electricity services. In contrast, the top 2% of consumers globally utilize over 300 GJ per person per year and alone account for one-third of global energy consumption. Meanwhile, the bottom half of the world's population accounts for merely 10% of this consumption.

According to the researchers, reducing patterns of excessive consumption — which frequently benefit from reduced or non-existent taxation — is essential not only to cut emissions, but also to bolster energy security and social justice.

The first proposed target is to triple the annual rate of energy efficiency improvement, raising the reduction of the final energy intensity of GDP to 4% per year.

The second consists of tripling the pace of electrification, increasing electricity's share of final energy consumption by 4% per year, until it reaches 33% in 2035.

The third consists of applying fairer taxation to extreme energy consumption, through a surcharge on consumption above 300 GJ per person per year.

The study argues that taxing luxury energy uses — such as private jets and yachts, which are currently lightly taxed or untaxed — could help curb excessive consumption, while simultaneously generating between 0.2 and 2 trillion dollars per year to expand energy access and support low-carbon investment.

The researchers state that the three targets were conceptualized to mutually reinforce one another. Efficiency helps limit overall demand growth. Electrification facilitates a more efficient provision of energy services. And taxing excessive consumption can simultaneously reduce pressure on energy systems and help finance a fairer transition.

Instead of treating demand reduction as a side effect of other policies, such as decarbonization, the article presents it as a public policy objective in its own right.

More information at: https://www.demandgoals.org/